Juan Martin Del Potro will be looking for his first win over Roger Federer when the two players square off at the Masters Series Madrid on Saturday. A spot in the title match is at stake.
Juan Martin Del Potro crashed what would have been a "Big 4" semifinal party in Madrid, and Roger Federer certainly isn't complaining.
Instead of going up against world No. 3 Andy Murray, against whom he is 2-6, Federer will take a 4-0 head-to-head record against Del Potro into their semifinal clash on Saturday afternoon at the Mutua Madrilena Madrid Open. Del Potro has never even taken a set off Federer (in 10 total sets), nor has he extended him to a tiebreaker. Federer most recently destroyed Del Potro 6-3, 6-0, 6-0 in the quarterfinals of this year's Australian Open. This Madrid clash, however, will be their first on a clay court.
The surface as well as Federer's relative malaise of late should give Del Potro his best chance of finally getting on the scoreboard in their head-to-head series. Federer has been struggling in 2009, to the extent that he is still in search of his first title of the year. Part of the reason for his trophy-less streak is that the world No. 2 appeared in just six tournaments prior to Madrid; since a season-opening event in Doha he has played exclusively in Grand Slams (the Australian Open) and Masters Series tournaments. Federer failed to win any of them and heads into this semifinal showdown with a 24-6 match record on the season. Needless to say, that is an impressive mark by most players' standards, but not by those of Roger Federer. He is 7-2 on clay after losing in the Monte-Carlo third round to fellow Swiss Stanislas Wawrinka and falling to Novak Djokovic in the Rome semifinals. So far in Madrid he has dispatched Robin Soderling, James Blake, and Andy Roddick.
If Federer is experiencing a bit of a decline, Del Potro is going in the opposite direction at this point in his young career. The 20-year-old Argentine exploded into ATP prominence midway through 2008, and dating back to last summer--when he won four straight tournaments--he has been playing incredible tennis. Del Potro is keeping up a torrid pace this year and has reached at least the quarterfinals in seven of eight tournaments so far in 2009. The world No. 5 started the season with a title in Auckland, made it to the quarterfinals at the Aussie Open, the quarterfinals in Indian Wells, and the semifinals in Miami, where he stunned Rafael Nadal. Seemingly still in search of a breakout on clay, Del Potro has done just that this week in Madrid. After losing to Ivan Ljubicic in his Monte-Carlo opener and bowing out with little fight to Novak Djokovic in the Rome quarterfinals, Madrid's No. 5 seed is back in business. He ousted tough opponents Tomas Berdych and Stanislas Wawrinka in rounds two and three, respectively, before upsetting Andy Murray 7-6(4), 6-3 in Friday's quarterfinals.
Del Potro's awesome level of play against Murray--which allowed him to run his opponent all over the court with huge groundstrokes--is good enough to beat Federer right now. A big difference, however, is that Federer won't be playing the same kind of game that Murray did against against Del Potro. Letting Del Potro dictate play is not going to work this week; but that won't make difference to Federer, who won't let the underdog Argentine dictate--at least not consistently. Del Potro can definitely take a set if he keeps this up, but Federer's variety will probably be too much in the end. Furthermore, their past history has to give the Swiss a massive mental edge. Federer in three is the pick.
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